Equity markets are likely to open on a downbeat note after disappointing Q1 results and outlook from IT majors such as TCS, Tata Elxsi. Analysts expect the cautious tone will prevail at the bourses, as the US-India trade deal is dragging on.
SimranJeet Singh Bhatia, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Almondz Global, said: “While global cues will continue to dictate trends in domestic equities, investors’ focus will be on the likely outcome of India’s ongoing trade negotiations with the US. Overall sentiments continue in a dilemma as the wait for a trade deal with the US continues.”
Traders are not confident about taking any major positive bets in this uncertain environment, he said. “On the domestic front, high valuations of stocks continue to drive caution. In contrast, first-quarter corporate earnings will be keenly watched over the next few weeks, given the weak global demand and sluggish domestic spending,” he added.
Gift Nifty at 25180 signals that Nifty may open weak by 50 points.
Emkay Global Research said its market health-check reveals a mixed bag, with some risks to the downside.
The domestic brokerage added: “Valuations are neutral, with some overvalued pockets. Re-rating has done the heavy-lifting for the markets, and the focus now shifts to earnings growth and upgrades; the earnings outlook is stable, but we expect a weak Q1FY26; upgrades will start only in H2FY26; portfolio flows, domestic and overseas, are strong, but supply is elevated, with accelerated promoter-selling being a red flag. We are cautious in the near term and expect 1-2 quarters of consolidation. Any sharp sell-off, however, would be a good entry point.”
According to Dr. V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd. there are signs of FPI inflows weakening. After three months of positive inflows, FPIs have turned negative, though marginally, so far in July. FPI inflows into equity through stock exchanges in July up to 11th show a negative figure of ₹555 crore. (NSDL) This is the first negative inflow number after three months of positive inflows in April, May and June.
In the first three months of this year, FPI inflows were negative and this trend reversed in the next three months.
“FPI selling in July, after three months of buying, can be attributed to the recovery in the market from the March lows and the consequent elevated valuations. Since other markets are cheaper relative to India, FIIs may again sell and move money to cheaper markets as a short-term strategy. In H1 2025, the Indian market underperformed most markets, including the MSCI EM index,” he added.
Meanwhile, Asian stocks are mixed in early deals on Monday.
Published on July 14, 2025
